Consideration of Probabilistic Assessment Uncertainties in Risk-Informed Decision Making
ARTICLE PDF

Keywords

uncertainty, risk-informed decision making, variation factor, acceptance criteria

How to Cite

Dybach, O. (2016). Consideration of Probabilistic Assessment Uncertainties in Risk-Informed Decision Making. Nuclear and Radiation Safety, (2(70), 37-40. https://doi.org/10.32918/nrs.2016.2(70).08

Abstract

The research offers classification of probabilistic assessment uncertainties by variation factor value. The objective is to familiarize with the decision-making procedure with respect to the set of acceptance criteria considering uncertainties. The paper presents corrective measures during decision-making under conditions of high uncertainty.

https://doi.org/10.32918/nrs.2016.2(70).08
ARTICLE PDF

References

Probabilistic Safety Assessment, INSAG-6, Report by the International Nuclear Safety Advisory Group, Vienna, International Atomic Energy Agency, 1992, 24 р. (Safety Series, ISSN 0074–1892, 75-INSAG-6, ISBN 92–0-102492–4).

ASAMPSA_E, Advanced Safety Assessment Methodologies, Extended PSA

Lyubarskiy, A., Kuzmina, I., El-Shanawany, M. (2011), “Notes on Potential Areas for Enhancement of PSA Methodology Based on Lessons Learned from the Fukushima Accident”, Proceedings of the 2nd Probabilistic Safety Analysis

Feynman Richard P. (2006), “Perfectly Reasonable Deviationsfrom the Beaten Track: The Letters of Richard P. Feynman”, Basic Books, 486 p.

NP 306.2.162–2010. (2010) “Requirements for NPP Safety Assessment”, State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine,Nuclear Safety Regulations and Rules, 25 p.

NP 306.2.141–2008. (2008) “General Safety Provisions for Nuclear Power Plants”, State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine, Nuclear Safety Regulations and Rules, 57 p.

Framework for an Integrated Risk Informed Decision Making Process, Report by the International Nuclear Safety Group, Vienna, International Atomic Energy Agency, 2011, 24 p. (INSAG Series, ISSN 1025–2169; No. 25; ISBN 978–92–0–114110–1).

Guidance on the Treatment of Uncertainties Associated with PRAs in Risk-Informed Decision Making, U. S. Nuclear RegulatoryCommission, 2009, 144 р. (NUREG-1855, Vol. 1).

Dybach, O.M. (2014), “Methodological Basis for Analysis and Accounting of NPP Probabilistic Safety Analysis Uncertainties” [Metodologicheskiie osnovy analiza i uchiota neopredelionnostei veroiatnostnogo analiza bezopasnosti AES], Nuclear and Radiation Safety, Kyiv, No. 4 (64), pp. 8–16. (Rus)

Dybach, O.M. (2015), “Application of Fuzzy Set Theory for Uncertainty Analysis in the Probabilistic Safety Assessment of Nuclear Power Plants” [O primenenii teorii nechiotkikh mnozhestv dlia otsenki neopredelionnostei veroiatnostnogo analiza bezopasnosti AES], Nuclear and Radiation Safety, Kyiv, No. 1 (64), pp. 8–16. (Rus)

Dybach, O.M. (2015), “Assessing Probability of Safety Criteria Exceeding According to Probabilistic Safety Analysis Results” [Otsenka veroiatnosti prevysheniia kriteriiev bezopasnosti po rezultatam veroiatnostnogo analiza bezopasnosti], Nuclear and Radiation Safety, Kyiv, No. 4 (64), pp. 8–16. (Rus)

Pearson, Karl. (1895), “Skew Variation in Homogeneous Material”, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, A, Vol. 186, pp. 343–414.

Podinovskii, V.V. (1976), “Multiobjective Tasks with Uniform Criteria Ordered by Importance” [Mnogokriterialnyie zadachi s uporiadochennymi po vazhnosti odnorodnymi kriteriiami], Automatics and Telemechanics, No. 11, pp. 118–127. (Rus)

Petrovskii, A.B., (2009), “Decision Making Theory” [Teoriia priniatiia reshenii], Moscow, Akademiia Publishing House, 400 p. (Rus)

Soloviov, V.I. (2012), “Methods of Optimal Decisions. Manual” [Metody optimalnykh reshenii. Uchebnoie posobiie], Moscow, Financial University, 364 p. (Rus)

Bodrov, V.I., Lazareva, T.Ya., Martemianov, Yu.F. (2004), “Mathematical Methods of Decision Making. Manual” [Matematicheskiie metody priniatiia reshenii. Uchebnoie posobiie], Tambov, Publishing House of Tambov State Technical University, 124 p. (Rus)